Sunday, February 03, 2013 7:43 PM
I was reading this article from Microsoft site: http://msdn.microsoft.com/en-us/library/ms175428(v=sql.100).aspx
I need help to interpret the result. Here is the Mining Legend from the chart below.
Targeted mailing all
Targeted mailing under 30
Random guess model
Ideal model for: Targeted mailing all
Ideal model for: Targeted mailing under 30
It says that "From these results, you can see that, when measured at 30 percent of all cases, the general model (Targeted mailing all) can predict the bike buying behavior of 47.40% of the target population. In other words, if you sent out a targeted mailing to only 30 percent of the customers in your database, you could reach slightly less than half of your target audience. If you used the filtered model, you could reach about 51 percent of your targeted customers."
This means that if we use the basic model (no filter) and assume the population is 1,000 and we sent 300 mails (for cases that have a predict probability of 61.38% or higher) out, you will get 142 [300 x 47.4%] responses back. This part makes sense.
But what if I sent out 1,000 (100% of overall population), from the line it shows that the target population is 100%. That means if I sent 1000 mails out I will get 1000 responses? I know this is not right, but how can we interpret this?
Monday, February 04, 2013 3:26 AM
I think I figured it out. Since based on the ideal line the most you can get is 474 if the population is 1,000. So if we send mail out to all 1,000 potential customers, we will get 474 of good responses. I think I got messed up with the term "Target Population". The meaning of "Target Population" is the maximum responses that one will get from using the specific model.
I hope I am right on this one.
- Marked As Answer by BIAnalyst Monday, February 04, 2013 8:31 PM