If you have users with iPhones or Smart Phones using ActiveSync then one of the quickest ways to see if this is the issue is to have users shot those phones off to see if the problem is resolved. If it is one or more iPhones then perhaps look at
what IOS they are on and get them to update to the latest version or adjust the ActiveSync connection timeout. NOTE: There was an issue where iPhones caused runaway transactions logs and I believe it was resolved with IOS 4.0.1
There was also a problem with the MS CRM client awhile back so if you are using that check out this link.
http://social.microsoft.com/Forums/en/crm/thread/6fba6c7f-c514-4e4e-8a2d-7e754b647014
I would also deploy some tracking methods to see if you can hone in on the culprits, i.e. If you want to see if the problem is coming from an internal Device/Machine you can use one of the following
MS USER MONITOR:
http://www.microsoft.com/downloads/en/details.aspx?FamilyId=9A49C22E-E0C7-4B7C-ACEF-729D48AF7BC9&displaylang=en and here is a link on how to use it
http://www.msexchange.org/tutorials/Microsoft-Exchange-Server-User-Monitor.html
And this is a great article as well
http://blogs.msdn.com/b/scottos/archive/2007/07/12/rough-and-tough-guide-to-identifying-patterns-in-ese-transaction-log-files.aspx
As you noted above you should also check out ExMon since you can use it to confirm which mailbox is unusually active , and then take the appropriate action.
http://www.microsoft.com/downloads/en/details.aspx?FamilyId=9A49C22E-E0C7-4B7C-ACEF-729D48AF7BC9&displaylang=en
Troy Werelius
www.Lucid8.com
Search, Recover, & Extract Mailboxes, Folders, & Email Items from Offline EDB's and Live Exchange Servers with Lucid8's DigiScope